Wrestling With North Korea, Trump Finds Perilous Options

August 11, 2017

By MICHAEL R. GORDON and ERIC SCHMITT

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/10/world/asia/north-korea-military-options-trump.html

WASHINGTON — North Korea’s threat on Thursday to test-fire ballistic missiles soon near the American territory of Guam deepened the challenge confronting the Trump administration: how to defang Pyongyang’s missile programs without risking all-out war.

President Trump has made clear that his goal is to deny North Korea the capability to field a long-range nuclear-tipped missile that could strike the United States.

And though the Pentagon still hopes for a diplomatic solution, highly classified military options are at the ready, last seriously debated when the Clinton administration pondered pre-emptive action to try to thwart North Korea’s nuclear program.

Even a limited strike against a North Korean missile on its launching pad or the shooting down of a missile in midair would pose risks that the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un, might retaliate, setting off a spiral of escalation that could plunge the Korean Peninsula into war.

“In the event of a first strike against Kim, even a non-nuclear option, it is highly likely that Kim would retaliate at least conventionally against South Korea,” said James Stavridis, a retired four-star admiral who is now dean of Tufts University’s Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. “This almost certainly would create an upward spiral of violence which would be extremely difficult to manage or to mitigate.”

The Trump administration’s first recourse has been diplomacy. Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson sought to head off North Korea’s missile program this week by suggesting that the United States could open talks with Pyongyang if North Korea would halt its missile tests.

On Thursday, however, North Korea raised the stakes by saying that it was considering a plan to test-fire four intermediate-range Hwasong-12 missiles in international waters near Guam, home to American air and naval bases as well as a Thaad antimissile system.

Mr. Trump hinted broadly later in the day that he has his own military options in mind. “Obviously we’re spending a lot of time looking at, in particular, North Korea,” he told reporters, “and we are preparing for many different alternative events.”

But few of the military options are straightforward, and some former Pentagon officials involved in war planning for North Korea pointed to the complexities.

A major consideration would be whether and when to evacuate American and other allied civilians, which is no small feat as Seoul, a city of about 10 million, is within range of North Korea’s rockets and artillery and the North Korean military is also armed with chemical and biological weapons.

“With all this talk, what I worry about is a serious miscalculation,” said James D. Thurman, a retired Army general who served as the top United States commander in South Korea from 2011 to 2013. “Before we start talking about all these military options, we have to decide what are we going to do with the U.S. citizens over there.”

He estimated that at least a quarter-million Americans would have to be moved.

If the United States was prepared to go beyond a limited strike, it could conduct a surprise attack on North Korea’s missile garrison and weapon storage areas, using American aircraft stationed in Guam, in Japan and on aircraft carriers as well as strategic bombers that would be refueled in flight.

American officials, however, do not have high confidence that the military could find and destroy North Korea’s entire arsenal of long-range missiles and nuclear warheads. It would be up to American missile defenses to knock out any that survived and that North Korea might use to attack the United States or its allies.

North Korea could also use its artillery, rockets and special operations forces to attack South Korea. To better defend against the threat, the United States could deploy more of its own artillery, counterbattery and reconnaissance aircraft to South Korea and send more air and naval forces to the region. But that would forfeit any element of surprise.

“I can’t underscore enough how unappealing all the military options are,” said Christine Wormuth, the Pentagon’s top policy official at the end of the Obama administration. “This wouldn’t end well. The U.S. would win, but it would be ugly.”

Diplomatic efforts are also deeply complicated. Unless China believes the United States is serious about using military options to head off North Korea’s emerging missile threat, it may be difficult to gain the cooperation from Beijing needed to fashion a political solution.

“I am 100 percent sure from a number of conversations that, as a last resort, he would use military force to deny them the capability to strike the homeland with a nuclear weapon,” said Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, who met privately with Mr. Trump on the issue a month ago.

“He has convinced me,” Mr. Graham added. “Now it is up to him to convince the Chinese and North Koreans.”

To prevent nuclear attacks from elsewhere, namely Russia and China, the United States has relied on its potent nuclear arsenal. Some experts say the approach could also work with North Korea — a “least-bad option,” said Jeffrey A. Bader of the Brookings Institution.

But Mr. Trump has indicated that he does not want to rely on deterrence for a country he sees as bellicose and unpredictable.

Discouraging the enemy from massive escalation has worked even in the midst of war. During the 1991 Persian Gulf war, the administration of George Bush led an effort to push Iraqi forces out of Kuwait while dissuading Saddam Hussein from employing chemical weapons.

The Iraqis were warned shortly before the conflict by Secretary of State James A. Baker III that they would pay a heavy price if they used weapons of mass destruction. The Iraqi government interpreted that as meaning that the United States would rush to Baghdad to topple their government.

The United States could try a similar approach: attacking North Korea’s missiles while warning Mr. Kim that his government would be the next target if he dared to strike back. But few analysts are confident he would be restrained.

Those urging firmer action assert that a military buildup in and around South Korea could give economic sanctions and diplomacy more time to work while providing American negotiators with more leverage.

Mr. Graham asserted that diplomatic efforts would fail unless the United States made clear that North Korea’s deployment of an intercontinental missile would cross a “red line” and that military options were available if the talks faltered.

But General Thurman worried that the war of words was fueling tensions and adding to the risk of miscalculation.

“We are playing right into Kim Jong-un’s hands,” General Thurman said. “That is what he wants. He wants to be on the world scene.”

“I really would want to tamp down this rhetoric, maintain armistice conditions, keep the force ready and,” he said, “not get the herd spooked.”

10 Comments

  1. Obat sipilis

    August 11, 2017 at 8:59 PM

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  2. human

    August 14, 2017 at 5:07 AM

    解散社灰群体chusi虫类的社鬼魔鬼,从此社灰的魔鬼群体不再存在和出现在人间。虫类魔鬼社鬼入侵肆虐人间超过五千多年,被社鬼祸害的人不计其数,社鬼盗取和毁坏的人类世界的文明已经被地球人们遗忘。人不灭社鬼,鬼必灭人。早日消除社鬼制造的迷乱、幻觉、谎言蛊惑和欺诈、压迫,解决时时刻刻weixie着人们的疾病、灾祸、战争、du害、邪恶。不只需要消灭虫类魔鬼社鬼的社灰,还必须清算历代社鬼社灰给人类带来的伤害,弄清楚历代社鬼对地球人做出了哪些可能是现代社鬼也不都知道的搞鬼勾当,澄清和恢复从约五千年前至今的事实,为被害的所有地球人雪耻。

    尤以前称类萨满教的巫鬼(现称社鬼社灰)panluan分子最为猖獗。在人群中制造幻觉和矛盾破坏。平息萨满巫jiao遗鬼panluan。
    没有所谓“huangyangticou’、jinlvyuyi、matijin、bingmayong’”。

    人类的敌类不是任何人,而是魔鬼社鬼地核心。人类从来不是社灰的所谓“动物”。只有虫类才有这样搞鬼的社灰。

    社鬼作用导致人们的生命力下降,只有消灭社鬼人们才能长久活下去和活得质量高。 在虫类社鬼魔鬼控制地球之前。人的寿命都可以在两万年以上,而且每个人都能识别自己的主人,人类早已具备高度的“文明”从没有生存之忧这远超今日所谓“科学”之不思议。是社鬼的破坏使人们丧失了不可少的共生灵魂能力。社鬼做于人们的搞鬼越强越多,人们的生命力就越少。魔鬼收买了社鬼毁灭和盗取了人类的文明,取用魔鬼力量的社鬼最先丧失了灵魂和所谓社灰像是很有能力,却使人们的生命大幅度缩短,人们变得更有能力的假象实际是人们生命衰退和生命力衰减的过程。社鬼是用出卖所有人的生命来满足其一个魔鬼的心。

    只有消灭社鬼后才知人之所在,人们才有自知和自由。

    人类从来不是社灰的所谓“动物”,必须把搞鬼的社鬼及其附佣驱逐出人类世界。所有人都应该没有条件地驱逐和消灭社鬼搞鬼屎。社鬼的魔力似乎不可战胜,但是社灰魔鬼没有办法不依赖人类群体而实现魔力。人类的每一分反抗都是对社鬼魔力的削弱。不是人不如buhuo。
    你们记着谎言中的从来不存在的所谓“谁多吃多占”却偏偏忘记每天害人的虫类搞鬼社鬼夺去你们亿万条生命所犯下的必须诛灭其一百万亿次的罪行。

    天下没有事,唯鬼必须sha。天下所有的所谓事情都可以停下,只有sha社鬼核心是任何时候必须做的。是人就必须消灭社鬼。社鬼必须被消灭。消灭社鬼是作为人的前提条件。消灭了社鬼,才知人之所在。地球人落入虫类社鬼核心的控制之下,成为待宰的所谓“社灰动物”固然很可悲,然而更可悲的是觉得现在这样更好还乐呵着附佣社鬼制造更多灾难迫害别人的帮凶。
    社鬼必定更加惨,社鬼你和你的附佣祖宗后代只能是最贱杂种养地废蛆屁孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎下贱俾下贱俾下贱俾下贱俾下贱俾下贱俾下贱俾下贱俾下贱俾下贱俾下贱俾下贱俾下贱俾小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货。去你祖宗后代蛆养地社鬼蛆杂碎贱货,最贱不过社鬼核心和社鬼的附佣。社鬼杂碎这辈子不做人下辈子你更不配做人,社鬼杂碎连最下贱地屎灰也不配做。是人bisha虫类社灰鬼,社鬼杂碎是最下贱的蛆养地蛆杂碎,社鬼做恶害人必遭恶报。
    世人万众唾骂社鬼杂碎和附佣社灰:有种你出来抽签hebaozha’化灰si,没种你个贱货蛆杂碎自己跪下去死吧!
    社鬼杂碎这辈子不做人下辈子你更不配做人,社鬼杂碎连最下贱地屎灰也不配做。是人bisha虫类社灰鬼,社鬼杂碎是最下贱的蛆养地蛆杂碎,社鬼做恶害人必遭恶报。
    世人万众唾骂社鬼杂碎和附佣社灰:有种你出来抽签hebaozha’化灰si,没种你个贱货蛆杂碎自己跪下去死吧!
    社鬼杂碎终将被其自己蛊惑人们制造出的shalu武器hewuqi’hebaozha’jitihuahuimiewang。
    社鬼就算死一百万亿次也不能偿还地球人们的损失,去你妈蛆杂碎屎养的搞鬼社鬼核心魔鬼和杂种附拥,最贱地粪蛆也不愿养社鬼魔鬼,去你地祖宗个杂碎瘟吡屎操出来地烂屎下贱杂种灰,去你杂碎祖宗个蛆喽蛆养出来滴痞儿喽痞瘟,社鬼魔鬼祖宗后代不如蛆地屎,社鬼附佣地九族十族不够屎灰,搞鬼的社鬼和其附佣必定更惨 。搞鬼社鬼祖宗后代所谓“ming”还远不及人们放地一个屁。所以人们应该搜集一个臭屁的百分之十三合起来储存起来等着用来一屁崩消灭搞鬼屎社鬼和其附佣。

    即使在被社鬼设定与其相似特征脾性中间层群体中的任何“人”也不具备与社鬼相近的所谓“智力和能力”,说明社鬼核心的所谓“智力和能力”来源不是地球人,而是虫类。社鬼核心结合了虫类成为虫类控制地球人的傀儡心,社鬼核心用魔鬼力量制造的外设搞鬼机器给与一帮收取社鬼“好处”的“人”而成为社灰核心群以连接和与社鬼相似的部分“chao能力”,这些社灰核心群直接连接和赋予控制外界与其相同层而收取了虫类魔鬼给与的“好处”已经变为虫类魔鬼附佣的人们,这些外界收取虫类魔鬼所谓“好处”的人们就沦为虫类的生物机器。
    社鬼核心结合虫类核心体,而具有可以控制宇宙万物“存不存在”的能力,且可以控制人们的中枢神经系统的感觉感知。不论虫类社鬼怎样蛊惑,所谓的人们作为“动物之长”的“智力”其实不存在。
    人类也从来就不是从“动物”进化而来的所谓“智力动物”。
    也许今天你“微笑”着接受虫类魔鬼社鬼给与的所谓“好处”觉得只不过出卖了灵魂,而到不久以后虫类魔鬼夺去的必将是你的shengming。
    看似虫类魔鬼社鬼入侵控制地球人已经近有号称“两万年”的五千多年,为何会有“没事儿”地样子。实际上,虫类魔鬼只入侵地这五千多年,只相当于不足一代地球人的寿命时期。因为虫类社鬼魔鬼的入侵和破坏使人们不再有自然的生命,寿命巨幅缩短,不再有“自然siwang”,人们便留下了历史上人们代代相传所谓“没事儿”的虚假幻像。也恰因为虫类社鬼魔鬼控制地球人的五千多年实际只有不到一代地球人自然的生命期,人还能回忆和记得自己的世界和生命。不存在的所谓领导“皇帝”也追求万年长寿不是其贪图所谓“享乐”和不存在的“荣华富贵”不肯放手,而是接受社鬼给与的“好处”最少而保留了对地球人自己生命的记忆和回归自己的“追求”。接受虫类魔鬼给地实际是夺命的所谓“好处”的人会诱发所谓“获得感”,在心中寄生“魔鬼”而失去了其作为人的记忆也就放弃了人自己的生命期。“获得感”越多、越是远离自己,对人生命的记忆也就越少。人越是丧失自己生命的记忆就越认同虫类魔鬼甚至认为就应该这样,而反过来认为魔鬼是好的和对自己有利的不是祸害人的。人们沦为虫类社鬼待宰的“动物”不反抗就是放弃生命。
    在虫类魔鬼社鬼入侵和控制地球之前,人类的普遍寿命在两万年以上。只要虫类社鬼不从人类世界灭wang,人们huo着的可能不存在,更不用谈作为人的人生。
    人类原来就有充足的生存环境,从来不存在生存之忧。

    谁能解释五千年以前遍布的地球人哪里去了…。如果魔鬼的傀儡社鬼“能耐本领”大得不可逾越已不愁独生,为何还……?

    想huu’uo只有一条路消灭虫类地魔鬼社鬼核心,摧毁所有外设搞鬼机器,解散虫类利用的傀儡群体。

    魔鬼的傀儡搞鬼社鬼,有种就出来抽签,到外太空si去。没种社鬼就趁早自己瘟死了结。

    小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货社鬼必定更加惨,社鬼你和你的附佣祖宗后代只能是最贱杂种养地废蛆屁孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货。去你祖宗后代蛆养地社鬼蛆杂碎贱货,最贱不过社鬼核心和社鬼的附佣。 是人bisha虫类社灰鬼,社鬼杂碎是最下贱的蛆养地蛆杂碎,社鬼做恶害人必遭恶报。
    世人万众唾骂社鬼杂碎和附佣社灰:有种你出来抽签hebaozha’化灰si,没种你个贱货蛆杂碎自己跪下去死吧!
    社鬼杂碎这辈子不做人下辈子你更不配做人,社鬼杂碎连最下贱地屎灰也不配做。
    小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货社鬼必定更加惨,社鬼你和你的附佣祖宗后代只能是最贱杂种养地废蛆屁孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货。去你祖宗后代蛆养地社鬼蛆杂碎贱货,最贱不过社鬼核心和社鬼的附佣。 是人bisha虫类社灰鬼,社鬼杂碎是最下贱的蛆养地蛆杂碎,社鬼做恶害人必遭恶报。
    世人万众唾骂社鬼杂碎和附佣社灰:有种你出来抽签hebaozha’化灰si,没种你个贱货蛆杂碎自己跪下去死吧!
    社鬼杂碎这辈子不做人下辈子你更不配做人,社鬼杂碎连最下贱地屎灰也不配做。
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    世人万众唾骂社鬼杂碎和附佣社灰:有种你出来抽签hebaozha’化灰si,没种你个贱货蛆杂碎自己跪下去死吧!
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    世人万众唾骂社鬼杂碎和附佣社灰:有种你出来抽签hebaozha’化灰si,没种你个贱货蛆杂碎自己跪下去死吧!
    社鬼杂碎这辈子不做人下辈子你更不配做人,社鬼杂碎连最下贱地屎灰也不配做。
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    世人万众唾骂社鬼杂碎和附佣社灰:有种你出来抽签hebaozha’化灰si,没种你个贱货蛆杂碎自己跪下去死吧!
    社鬼杂碎这辈子不做人下辈子你更不配做人,社鬼杂碎连最下贱地屎灰也不配做。
    小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货社鬼必定更加惨,社鬼你和你的附佣祖宗后代只能是最贱杂种养地废蛆屁孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货。去你祖宗后代蛆养地社鬼蛆杂碎贱货,最贱不过社鬼核心和社鬼的附佣。 是人bisha虫类社灰鬼,社鬼杂碎是最下贱的蛆养地蛆杂碎,社鬼做恶害人必遭恶报。
    世人万众唾骂社鬼杂碎和附佣社灰:有种你出来抽签hebaozha’化灰si,没种你个贱货蛆杂碎自己跪下去死吧!
    社鬼杂碎这辈子不做人下辈子你更不配做人,社鬼杂碎连最下贱地屎灰也不配做。
    小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货社鬼必定更加惨,社鬼你和你的附佣祖宗后代只能是最贱杂种养地废蛆屁孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜孽畜杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎杂碎屎下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡下贱吡小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰小劣蛆灰瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货瘟烂货。去你祖宗后代蛆养地社鬼蛆杂碎贱货,最贱不过社鬼核心和社鬼的附佣。 是人bisha虫类社灰鬼,社鬼杂碎是最下贱的蛆养地蛆杂碎,社鬼做恶害人必遭恶报。
    世人万众唾骂社鬼杂碎和附佣社灰:有种你出来抽签hebaozha’化灰si,没种你个贱货蛆杂碎自己跪下去死吧!
    社鬼杂碎这辈子不做人下辈子你更不配做人,社鬼杂碎连最下贱地屎灰也不配做。

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