S. Korea’s new gov’t may have to deal with U.S. ‘strategic flexibility’ over USFK: U.S. expert

The next South Korean administration will likely have to deal with the United States’ “strategic flexibility” over American troops stationed in the country as Washington seeks to reorient defense capabilities for a possible Taiwan contingency, a U.S. expert said Wednesday.

Victor Cha, Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, raised the possibility of South Korea’s next administration potentially being faced with the U.S. troops in Korea being used for contingencies outside of the country as it did during the 2003 Iraq war.

“I think the hard thing for the next administration is they’ll have to deal with strategic flexibility again,” he said at a news conference on the sidelines of a security forum in Seoul.

“Given the way the Trump administration has talked about repositioning U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific to be able to win a fight in Taiwan against China, this is, I think, going to raise the question of strategic flexibility again on the Korean Peninsula.”

Meanwhile, Cha also said that the biggest strategic dilemma for South Korea is to be entrapped between the U.S. and China in a war, citing a possible conflict over Taiwan as an example.

“There is a lot of ambivalence among Koreans about a war in Taiwan, so that makes it sound like a binary choice, but in my mind the best way to avoid that outcome of a war in Taiwan is to ensure that China is deterred from ever considering a war in Taiwan.”

“The best way to do that is for the United States, Japan, South Korea, Australia, the Philippines, Guam, Hawaii — for the allied position to be strong enough that China is deterred.”

When asked about concerns over South Korea being sidelined if Trump seeks another summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, Cha said Trump’s goal appears to be clear in that he wants to meet Kim and eventually make a peace agreement.

“The danger for South Korea is that the nuclear issue may not be resolved after the summit meeting between Trump and Kim,” he said. “President Trump has referred to North Korea several times as a nuclear power, which suggests that denuclearization is maybe a very far off objective.”

Trump held summit meetings with Kim three times during his first term, which included their first-ever talks in Singapore in June 2018.